The Vatican Conclave 2025, tasked with electing the successor to Pope Francis, began on May 7 in the Sistine Chapel, but the first day ended with black smoke billowing from the chimney, indicating no new pope has been chosen. As the world watches, here’s the latest on the papal conclave, the cardinals’ vote, and what the black smoke means for the future of the Catholic Church.
Conclave Kicks Off: No Pope Elected on First Ballot
The conclave, a secretive and sacred process to select the 267th pope, started with 133 cardinal electors from 71 countries gathering under Michelangelo’s iconic frescoes in the Sistine Chapel. This is the largest group of cardinal electors in history, with 108 appointed by Pope Francis, who passed away on April 21, 2025. The cardinals, sequestered from the outside world, took an oath of secrecy before casting their first vote on Wednesday afternoon.
At 9:00 p.m. local time, black smoke rose, signaling an inconclusive first ballot. This outcome was expected, as no pope has been elected on the first day in modern times. The conclave will resume on Thursday, May 8, with up to four rounds of voting—two in the morning and two in the afternoon—until a candidate secures a two-thirds majority (89 votes).
What Does Black Smoke Mean?
In the papal conclave, black smoke means no candidate has achieved the required two-thirds majority to become the new pope. The cardinals burn their ballots after each voting session, adding chemicals like potassium perchlorate, anthracene, and sulfur to produce the dark plume. White smoke, signaling the election of a new pope, will appear when a candidate is chosen, accompanied by the announcement “Habemus Papam!” (“We have a pope!”). The black smoke on May 7 sent crowds in St. Peter’s Square dispersing, but anticipation remains high for the days ahead.
Who’s in the Running for the New Pope?
While any baptized Catholic male is technically eligible to be pope, the next pontiff is likely to come from the College of Cardinals. Speculation swirls around several “papabile” (pope-worthy) candidates:
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, is a leading contender, favored for his diplomatic expertise and moderate views. Betting odds on platforms like Polymarket give him a 34% chance of election.
Cardinal Luis Tagle, 67, from the Philippines, is a charismatic figure and a potential first Asian pope, known for his work in evangelization.
Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72, from Hungary, represents the conservative wing and is gaining attention.
Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the Archbishop of New York, is among the 10 U.S. cardinals voting but is not considered a top contender. The diverse conclave, with 53 cardinals from Europe, 37 from the Americas, 23 from Asia, 18 from Africa, and 4 from Oceania, reflects Pope Francis’ push for global representation.
How Long Will the Conclave Last?
The conclave will continue until a new pope is elected, with recent conclaves averaging two to three days. Pope Francis was elected in 2013 after five ballots over two days, while the longest conclave in modern times, in 1903, took five days. Historically, the longest conclave lasted over two years (1268–1271), but rule changes ensure quicker decisions today. If no pope is chosen after 33 or 34 votes (about 13 days), a runoff between the top two candidates may occur, per a rule introduced by Pope Benedict XVI.
Cardinal Jean-Paul Vesco, Archbishop of Algiers, told ABC News it would be “unexpected” if the conclave extends beyond Friday, May 9. Cardinal Dolan echoed this, suggesting three to four days due to the many worthy candidates.
Vatican Live Stream and Conclave Updates
While the conclave itself is private, the Vatican’s chimney is the world’s focus, with live streams capturing every puff of smoke. News outlets like CNN, Reuters, and Catholic News Agency provide real-time conclave updates, and Vatican News offers insights into the process. Crowds in St. Peter’s Square, along with millions online, are on “pope watch,” awaiting the white smoke that will signal the new pope’s election.
Has a Pope Ever Been Elected on the First Ballot?
No pope in modern history has been elected on the first ballot. The complex dynamics of the conclave, combined with the need for a two-thirds majority, typically require multiple rounds. Even Pope Francis, a relatively quick selection, needed five ballots. The first vote often serves as a “testing ground” for candidates.
What Is a Conclave?
A conclave, from the Latin “cum clave” (“with a key”), is the locked-in meeting where cardinals elect a new pope. Held in the Sistine Chapel, it ensures secrecy and isolation, with cell phones surrendered and signals jammed. The process begins with a Mass, followed by the “Extra Omnes” (“Everyone Out”) command, sealing the cardinals inside. Each cardinal writes their chosen candidate on a ballot marked “Eligo in Summum Pontificem” (“I elect as Supreme Pontiff”), and votes are cast before Michelangelo’s Last Judgment.
Pope Francis’ Legacy and the Path Ahead
Pope Francis, the first Latin American pope, reshaped the College of Cardinals to be less Eurocentric, influencing this conclave’s global makeup. His 12-year papacy was marked by openness and reform, though it faced division. Some cardinals seek continuity, while others favor a return to tradition. The next pope will inherit a Church navigating clergy abuse scandals, global representation, and theological debates.
When Will the New Pope Be Elected?
With black smoke marking day one, the world awaits further votes. If Thursday’s four rounds yield no result, more will follow. Based on recent history, a new pope could emerge by Friday or Saturday, May 9–10, but the process could extend longer. When white smoke rises, the new pope will appear on St. Peter’s Basilica’s balcony, greeted by cheers and a new chapter for the Catholic Church.
Stay tuned for conclave live updates as the Vatican smoke signals the next step in this historic pope election.
0 Comments