AfDB Forecasts Robust Growth for African Nations, Nigeria Excluded

Nigeria's economic outlook for 2024 appears subdued as it is notably absent from the list of 11 African nations anticipated to witness robust growth, according to the latest report from the African Development Bank Group (AfDB).

The AfDB's analysis, outlined in its recent Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook report, highlights that Africa is set to host 11 of the world's 20 fastest-growing economies in 2024. However, Nigeria, one of the continent's largest economies, is not projected to be among them.

Leading the pack of African countries expected to experience significant economic expansion are Niger with a projected growth rate of 11.2%, followed by Senegal (8.2%), Libya (7.9%), Rwanda (7.2%), Cote d’Ivoire (6.8%), Ethiopia (6.7%), Benin (6.4%), Djibouti (6.2%), Tanzania (6.1%), Togo (6%), and Uganda (6%).

Contrarily, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down its growth forecast for Nigeria to 3% in 2024, a slight dip from the previously projected 3.1% in October 2023, as indicated in the IMF's World Economic Outlook update for January 2024.

Overall, the AfDB report predicts that Africa's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth will average 3.8% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025, surpassing the global averages of 2.9% and 3.2% for the respective years.

Despite these optimistic projections for the continent, challenges persist. Akinwumi Adesina, President of the AfDB, voiced concerns over various crises affecting Africa, including rising living costs, sluggish economic growth, climate change impacts, health pandemics, conflicts, and geopolitical tensions. Adesina emphasized the need for increased financing and policy interventions to stimulate Africa's growth trajectory.

The report also underscores the importance of cautious optimism amidst global and regional risks, such as geopolitical tensions, conflicts, and political instability, which could disrupt trade and investment flows and exacerbate inflationary pressures.

In presenting the report's key findings, Prof. Kevin Urama, Chief Economist and Vice President of the AfDB, noted that growth in Africa's top-performing economies is driven by factors like economic diversification, strategic investments, and rising consumption.

Echoing the sentiment of collaboration, Ambassador Albert Muchanga, Commissioner for Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry, and Minerals at the African Union Commission, emphasized the significance of economic integration for Africa's future prosperity, stressing the need for a robust internal trade market to enhance competitiveness globally.